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The Black Art of Estimation

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by Gordon McLean

Gordon McLean By day, Gordon McLean is a technical author from the UK (Scotland, actually) with a passion for good, communicative information products, and by night he dabbles in Web design. He is the Technical Information Manager at Sword Ciboodle and has been working in the technical communications field for 15 years.

He is member of the Institute of Scientific and Technical Communicators (and contributor to the monthly newsletter), and a member of the Information Architecture Institute. You can find more about Gordon on his personal blog.

How Long is a Piece of String?


It's a common question and one I've occasionally used in reply when asked "We are building this new thing. How long will it take to provide some documentation for it?"

Estimating the amount of time it takes to write documentation is tricky because it relies on many differing, subtle factors. For many people working outside of a highly regimented, project-managed team, it tends to boil down to a mixture of guesswork and experience. However, it's not impossible to come up with a more reasoned estimate as long as you don't mind doing a little planning. Although, to be frank, if you aren't planning your work, you can probably stop reading now and go find a copy of JoAnn T. Hackos' Information Development: Managing Your Documentation Projects, Portfolio, and People.

A Tool for Estimating

 

So in the spirit of sharing, I present an estimating tool I've used in the past and have, very recently, uncovered again. This tool is based on JoAnn Hackos' dependencies calculator (see her book, Managing Your Documentation Projects, in the section about "Making a Preliminary Estimate of Required Resources"). I've adapted my tool for use with single source content but you can also use it for other types of documentation projects.

The idea is simple enough. You break down your planned content into topics, with a topic defined as a discrete amount of information that shouldn't take more than a couple of hours to write. Then, when you add in time for review and rewrite, you can take an educated guess as to how long an average topic* takes to complete. So, for the sake of discussion, let's say an average topic takes about five hours to complete. Each topic is then scored against four criteria, with the scoring used to add or subtract an appropriate level of variance, as follows:

  • Difficulty of topic — Do you know what you are writing about or is it brand new? Is it a simple topic or something complex?

  • Scope of topic — Does the difficulty dictate that a lot of content is needed? Or is it a short topic of fixed content?

  • Availability of information — Are you updating an existing document? Do you have a specification to work from? Or do you have to write from scratch?

  • Access to SME — Do you have good access to a Subject Matter Expert? Do you have limited access only or none at all?

* Defining an average topic is probably the most contentious part of this method and it may take some refinement to arrive at a workable number.

Calculate Topic Complexity

 

Each topic is scored from 1 (long, hard, complex) to 5 (short, easy, simple), against each criterion. An average topic would score 3 for each criterion and won't affect the estimate from the standard five hours. Scoring the topics this way allows you to factor in a level of variance. A difficult topic with a large scope that has no information available, and for which you have no access to an SME, will score lowest marks (all criteria score 1) and has the highest level of variance from your standard topic estimate.

The criteria are fairly high level, and you could certainly expand on these for a more granular approach, but I've found that most issues can be assigned to one of the above criteria and that keeps the estimation as simple as possible. The variance can then be calculated (again, with an estimated time) so that you can adjust the time it takes to complete the topic. For example:

Score 1 — Variance of +2 hours per criteria

Score 2 — Variance of +1 hour per criteria

Score 3 — Zero variance

Score 4 — Variance of -30 minutes per criteria

Score 5 — Variance of -1 hour per criteria

The figures given above are, also, estimated. You'll note that the higher scored (and therefore lower variance) topics don't gain you proportionately the same amount as you lose to the lower scored (higher variance) topics. The reality is that, no matter how simple the topic, it still takes time to document.

A long, complex and difficult topic with little to no information and no available expert will score 1 across the four criteria and add 8 hours (2 hours per criteria) to the estimated completion time for that topic, taking the estimated total for that topic to 13 hours.

Flip the example around so that you are estimating a short, simple topic, which comes with sufficient supporting information and an SME sitting on your desk to help you write it. That topic would score 5 for each criterion, and gain you 4 hours, meaning the estimated total for that topic would drop to 1 hour. (It is interesting to note that increasing the gain numbers enough could result in a topic taking less than zero time to create!)

Use My Spreadsheet to Aid Calculations

 

Now, the obvious thing to do would be to create a spreadsheet that allows you to add in your topics, score them against the criteria, and calculate the total estimated time-and perhaps while it's at it, add in a level of contingency. And that is exactly what I did.

Feel free to download the estimation spreadsheet (zipped Excel file). It is annotated to help you understand its use, and includes two additional columns which allow tracking when a topic was added to the spreadsheet, either as part of the initial planning, when identified during the review cycle, or because of a change in product scope. All of the calculations use basic arithmetic, so feel free to poke around and try this out.

My tool is not an exact system, but that's why they are called estimates. If for nothing else, the tool helps my team plan what they are writing about, which, sometimes, is more valuable than the estimates themselves.

 

 

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